Although in most of the world there is some time to plan and prepare for climate change, we are the first to feel its effects as a direct threat to continued life in our country. We are among the most vulnerable of the vulnerable. Even a marginal increase in sea levels will be disastrous for our country's future. It is doubtful that any other country feels the effects of climate change as much as we do. In Kiribati, the entire nation faces real danger—our own survival is at stake as a people, as a unique and vibrant culture and as a sovereign nation.

According to a report published by the World Bank in 2000, "the Pacific Islands are becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events as growing urbanization and squatter settlements, degradation of coastal ecosystems, and rapidly developing infrastructure on coastal areas intensify the islands’ natural exposure to climate events. Among the most substantial impacts of climate change would be losses of coastal infrastructure and land resulting from inundation, storm surge, and shoreline erosion. Climate change could also cause more intense cyclones and droughts, the failure of subsistence crops and coastal fisheries, losses in coral reefs, and the spread of malaria and dengue fever."

There is a tendency in much of the world to view climate change as a slow and gradual process where the harmful effects will be able to prevented before they occur.  What is happening in Kiribati is evidence to the contrary. Kiribati is "like the canary in the coal mine in terms of the dramatic impact of climate change on a whole civilization of people,” says Harvard University biological oceanographer James J. McCarthy. “They didn't cause the problem, but they are among the first to feel it."

We directly experience higher tides and more frequent storms, which bring salt-water intrusion and coastal flooding.  We have long periods of drought, an endangered supply of fresh water, and bleaching of the coral reefs that cradle our islands. The islands and atolls of Kiribati have limited ground water lenses. Potable ground water in wells has traditionally supplied water for the population but this supply has been failing as a direct result of climate changes that are being experienced. The coral limestone, which supports atolls, is porous and allows seawater to flow through it.  The water table oscillates on a daily basis with the tides, and in the long term with the mean sea level. As sea levels have risen, many wells have become contaminated with salt water and can no longer be used. The ground water supply in South Tarawa is dependent on the size of the land area and as this diminishes as a result of rising sea levels and coastal erosion, so does the size of the water lens. Read this case study about drilling for water in Kiribati. Traditionally there have been two seasons in Kiribati—“Aumaiaki”, the dry season from April to September, and “Aumeang”, the rainy season from October to March. But in recent years the country has experienced unusual and extreme drought-like conditions, even during what has traditionally been the rainy season. As a result rainwater catchment has been greatly reduced. The net result of these factors mean that the water supply in Kiribati falls short of the recommended WHO standard of 50 litres per person per day.

 

Drilling for water in Kiribati Binataake Nawere stands bucketing water from his well in the strong afternoon sun at Betio in South Tarawa, Kiribati. "We use well water for washing clothes and dishes," says 60-year old Binataake as he fills a large container with groundwater. The residents of Betio and many of Kiribati’s residents often rely on well water to meet their needs. Fresh water is in short supply in Tarawa. The average house in Betio only receives tap-water for an hour and a half every 2 days. The population of South Tarawa has grown from only 3,013 in 1931 to over 40,311 by 2005. Such rapid growth has led to a population density as high as 15,000 people per square kilometre on the narrow atoll islands. Tokyo, famous for overcrowding, has a population density almost three times lower. Tiaeke Tio and the KAPII drilling rig at Bikenibeu. A KAPII (Kiribati Adaptation Program – Pilot Implementation Phase II) working crew recently completed a two month long project to drill boreholes required to assess the thickness of the underground freshwater lens in Tarawa. The lens is made up of rain water that has infiltrated the soil of the atoll. This freshwater then actually floats on top of a layer of saltwater directly beneath each island.  "It is my first time to see how it works, it is really exciting," says Tiaeke Tio, an i-Kiribati technician as he stands in front of the KAPII drilling rig. Measuring boreholes have been installed by the project at Tabiang, Tabuki and Nubeina in North Tarawa and at Bikenibeu, Bairiki and Betio in South Tarawa. These boreholes will build on the network already in place and enable ongoing assessments of the freshwater lens to be made. The team has been led and trained by Colin Benjamin, an experienced driller from the UK. When Colin arrived in Tarawa he had some concerns about training a local team to drill. "I thought the local language and labour issues were going to be difficult and therefore training would be hard. But it was the opposite, the i-Kiribati were very good," says Colin with a big smile on his face. "We can now measure where the freshwater lens starts and finishes and how this changes over time. This changes as it is affected by the amount of water pumped out, rainfall, tide and climate change," says Colin as they complete the last borehole in the grounds of the Betio Sport Complex. This new information is necessary to plan for the sustainable use of water in Tarawa. If too much water is extracted at a location where the lens is not thick enough, saltwater is pumped up from below the freshwater lens causing contamination of the freshwater and making it unusable. The 40,311 residents of South Tarawa are currently drawing on a groundwater supply that can only support half the population. Water scarcity is a critical issue and the risk of saltwater contamination of the freshwater lens is ever present, so discovering new water resources are critical. Training an i-Kiribati team to operate the required equipment is vital for the sustainability of ground water monitoring in Tarawa. "As far as the local drilling crew is concerned, we have managed to put together a very efficient team that is learning a lot," continues Colin. Tiaeke nods his head and responds, "We have been drilling down to 15 or 20 metres, getting all the parts together and getting the machine going. I am learning something new." "It is good to learn about looking after the water here," says Tiaeke as he describes the importance of the KAPII team’s work to Kiribati. "It is where my ancestors lived, where I grew up, where my family is. I love the place and I love this country." Binataake knows well the importance of the freshwater lens. "When the government piped water supply is not operating and there is no rainwater, we only have the water from our well," he says lifting another full bucket, something he hopes to be able to rely on, now and into the future. The Government of Kiribati KAPII project is supported by the World Bank, the Global Environment Facility, AusAID and NZAID. The key goal is to reduce Kiribati’s vulnerability to climate change, climate variability and sea level rise

All of Kiribati is coastal! People in Kiribati are observing extensive coastal erosion taking place, not only of the beach but also of the land, displacing now some of them from their traditional house plots since the early 1900, and felling coconut trees, papaya trees and other varieties of vegetation at the coastal areas. Many of the country’s islands are so narrow that there really is no place to go. Kiribati has roughly 100,000 citizens and its main island, Tarawa, suffers from severe overcrowding.

Although a lot of attention has been given to rising sea levels, this data only tells part of the story. The atolls of Kiribati are experiencing increased wave heights and frequency and we can see that this is placing increased pressure on the shoreline and seawalls. We have observed that storm surges occur far more often than in the past. High waves break over coastal land and seawalls causing flooding and destruction to settled areas and fruit trees. Cyclones and hurricanes occur more frequently in the ocean area surrounding Kiribati and these generate waves that damage the atolls.

Short-term readings of sea level rise are problematic due to large year-to-year variation, in part caused by events such as El Nino (which typically causes a large rise), and La Nina (a smaller rise or decrease). The Australian National Tidal Centre reports that sea levels in Kiribati have averaged a rise of 3.7 millimetres a year since 1992. But incrementally rising seas are only part of the story. Far more damaging are the extreme events that come with them.

In Australia, a 20-centimetre rise is estimated to up the number of extreme seas by a factor of 10. A 50-centimetre rise—now considered a conservative projection for this century unless emissions are curbed - is projected to bring about a 300-fold increase. Oceanographer John Hunter, a sea level researcher from the University of Tasmania, says it is reasonable to think that the impact in the Pacific—where data collection and analysis are under way - will be similar.

What might that mean? According to the same World Bank report, Kiribati's main island of Tarawa—where nearly half the population lives—will be 25-54 per cent inundated in the south and 55-80 per cent in the north by mid-century due to sea level rise and storm surges unless there is significant adaptation. Factor in what this means for poisoning of groundwater, destruction of limited arable land and spread of disease, and you have an unlivable national capital.

Waves of 5 meters in height have been recorded in the Tarawa atoll and its vicinity.  In some parts of Tarawa, ocean wave heights on reaching the beach have been as high as 3.5 meters and waves of this height have been very destructive. The land surface is nowhere any higher than 2-3 meters above the mean sea level.

The science relating to sea level rise has been in a great state of flux. Some long term predictions of sea level rise for Kiribati have suggested that there is a margin of safety present, but this is regularly contradicted by local eye witness observations. For example, in 1997 Kiritimati (Christmas Island) was devastated by an El Niño event that brought heavy rainfall and flooding, resulting in a half-meter rise in sea level. Roughly 40% of the island’s coral died and their 14 million birds, reputed to be among the world’s richest bird population, left the islands. Figures for sea level rise are imprecise and are only indicative of average levels. Isolated extreme climate events on top of sea level rises can be devastating.

"The situation is much more volatile than the data suggests," says local video producer, Linda Uan. "It doesn't take into account the other factors such as changing wind directions and storms. Only last month the high tide caused considerable seawall damage on Tarawa, and the levels were much higher than normal - it wasn't a neap tide and there was almost no wind.   We can see these things with our own eyes."

Other extreme weather events have seemed to increase in intensity. For example, less than a week before the Kyoto Protocol went into effect, Kiribati was ravished by a 'king tide'—an example of the kind of sea-level rise that is predicted to occur as global temperatures increase. During the king tide many people were affected by waves that reached 2.87 meters, devastating some villages, sweeping farmland out to sea, and contaminating fresh water wells.

Increased flooding has already forced some villagers to move inland, but that this short trip is a temporary solution since we are in danger of falling off if we keep moving back. Land is in short supply, particularly in the capital and urban centre in South Tarawa, which is one of the poorest and most densely populated areas in the Pacific.

Many of the crops grown in Kiribati are affected by changes in climate. Production of copra - the main cash crop for about 55 percent of Kiribati’s population - is sensitive to rainfall, as coconuts require annual rainfall of at least 1,000-1,500 millimetres.

A former fresh water pond that now is flooded with sea water, killing coconut trees and milk fish stocks, both vital parts of the local diet.

Te babai (giant taro) is extremely sensitive to reductions in groundwater. Te babai pits are also prone to saltwater intrusion as a result of storm surges and overwash.

Left to right: Healthy taro pit, one mildy affected by salt water, and one rendered useless by saltwater innundation.

Climate change is most likely to affect agricultural crops through changes in rainfall. If wetter conditions prevail, production of water-sensitive crops-coconut, breadfruit, and te babai - is likely to increase. If rainfall decreases, coconut and te babai production will likely decline.

Climate variability may also affect agricultural production, especially during La Niña years, when droughts are most likely to occur.

Sea level rise could affect agriculture crops in two major ways: first, through saltwater intrusion, which would affect te babai production in particular. Second, through loss of coastal land due to inundation, which could reduce production of copra, breadfruit, and pandanus. Estimates of the cost of damage could not be made due to data and time constraints.

Climate change exacerbates public health problems in Tarawa. The incidence of ciguatera poisoning, diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition, and vectorborne diseases, such as dengue fever, rise as a result of increased temperatures and changes in rainfall.

Dengue Fever

There have been four known outbreaks of dengue fever in Kiribati, two during the 1970s and two during the 1980s. South Tarawa is at a relatively high risk of dengue fever epidemics due to a combination of crowded urban areas, ideal climate conditions for the vector (average temperatures of 31 degrees Celsius and rainfall of 500 millimetres a month), the presence of an international airport, and the proliferation of discarded empty bottles and used tires.

A simple model suggests that the risk of dengue fever will increase in the future as a result of climate change, with the epidemic potential – an index measuring the efficiency of disease transmission - expected to increase 22─33 percent by 2050. Most of South Tarawa's population would be exposed in the event of an epidemic. However, while future epidemics could expand faster, the number of cases would probably not increase from current levels. The increased prevalence of all dengue virus serotypes worldwide could also lead to a higher incidence of severe forms of dengue fever - in particular dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome, which can be fatal.

Ciguatera Poisoning

Kiribati has one of the highest rates of ciguatera poisoning in the Pacific (Lewis and Ruff 1993). The disease is contracted by consuming reef fish that have been contaminated by ciguatoxins.

A recent study found a statistically significant relation between sea surface temperatures and the reported incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning in Kiribati (Hales and others 1999). This relation was used to model the projected increases in ciguatera poisoning (table 16). The model shows that a rise in temperatures is expected to increase the incidence of ciguatera poisoning from 35–70 per thousand people in 1990 to about 160–430 per thousand by 2050.

These results should be interpreted cautiously, as the model is based on many uncertainties and limited data. The overall impact of climate change on ciguatera should perhaps be measured not in terms of incidence rates but in terms of how people respond to the increased risk (Ruff and Lewis 1997). This may include changes in diets, decreased protein intake, increased household expenditures to obtain substitute proteins, and loss of revenue from reef fisheries. In addition, reef disturbance has been linked to ciguatera outbreaks (Ruff, 1989; Lewis 1992), suggesting that improved management of coastal areas would be an important adaptation strategy.

Diarrhoeal Disease. Increased rainfall would likely result in a reduction in the overall rate of diarrhoea due to improved water quality and availability (though flooding may also lead to groundwater contamination). Decreased rainfall—particularly if it resulted in an increase in droughts—would increase the incidence of diarrhoea, as water shortages exacerbate sanitation problems. The projected rise in temperature may increase the incidence of diarrhoea, primarily by increasing the likelihood of spoiled or contaminated food. Sea level rise could also increase the incidence of diarrhoea by decreasing the size of the freshwater lens, exacerbating overcrowding conditions, and disrupting sanitation and water supply.

Tarawa has experienced cholera outbreaks in the past. It is possible that increased temperatures may enhance the pathway of cholera transmission through the high level sewage contamination in Tarawa’s coastal waters.

Indirect Public Health Effects

The indirect public health effects of climate change could be far-reaching. They could include increases in malnutrition due to losses of subsistence agriculture and fisheries; deterioration in standards of living due to impacts on primary sectors; loss of land and infrastructure, leading to increased crowding and land shortages; and the immense economic, social, and cultural impacts associated with population relocation if it was required as a result of inundation or water shortages. These diffuse effects could well prove to be the most important impacts of climate change on the public health of the atoll.

Climate change is thus likely to place a substantial burden on the people and economy of Kiribati. Losses could be catastrophic for a country with a GDP of only $US580.8 million (2008 est.). Communities would likely adapt to sea level rise by elevating their houses or moving further inland, particularly if the changes were gradual. Nevertheless, sea level rise could profoundly affect the economy of Kiribati by inundating the causeways that now link the islets of Tarawa, thus disrupting socio-economic links. Much of the impact of climate change will ultimately depend on the extent to which proactive adaptation measures are adopted.

An effort is underway to determine the level of risk from inundation and saltwater intrusion, and the results of this will give a better idea of the level of costs that will arise from the adverse effects of climate change. But, a very rough estimate recently made on the cost for the total protection of all inhabited islands in Kiribati came to around $US2 billion based on present day values. This is for protection only.